Did Bill Purcell’s relatively early announcement that he would not seek a third term (a possibility which, to be fair, may not have been legal under the city charter) throw a wrench in the mayoral race, too? Reading this Nashville Scene article written one year ago, I can’t help but wonder:

District Attorney Torry Johnson was at the YMCA working out earlier this week when a curious voter asked him the question everybody wants answered: is he or isn’t he running for mayor? Johnson’s answer hasn’t wavered, whether he’s talking to constituents or impatient reporters: he’s still trying to decide.

He says the office of mayor is “interesting” and “intriguing”—the kind of position he’d be willing to make sacrifices for. At the same time, he’d been planning to run for district attorney last spring when Mayor Bill Purcell announced he wouldn’t try for a third term, leaving the field open for three candidates who leapt into the void. “The announced candidates said they were in practically from the minute Mayor Purcell’s announcement reverberated through the city,” Johnson says. “I’d been focused on the DA’s race up to that point. Only then did people start talking to me about being mayor. So I’m coming at this a little bit differently.”

According to a source with knowledge of the DA’s inner circle, Johnson is almost certain to run. The same source says Johnson’s closest confidants put the likelihood at 90 percent.

Here’s hoping no one had money on Johnson as a 90-percent “sure thing” last summer. There’s a funny thing about the near certainty of 90 percent, too: That 10 percent still keeps coming back around and winning out oh, about one out of every 10 times.

I’ll admit that I know very little about District Attorney Torry Johnson beyond the fact that he spent considerable time last year pondering–and then declining–a run at the city’s top office. Reportedly, he was the business community’s top choice and, at least in the media, appeared to be emerging as the insider’s favorite for the job. Compared with what was at the time an underwhelming three-candidate field (Clement, Dozier and Gentry) that was not inspiring much excitement among the electorate, Johnson looked like a safe bet to serve as Nashville’s next mayor.

Since that time, progressive candidates David Briley and Karl Dean have entered the race and, according to several polls, rank fourth and fifth among the candidates behind, among others, apparent frontrunner Bob Clement. There has been plenty of speculation that either Briley or Dean ought to leave the race to allow the other an opportunity to make what is expected to be a runoff against Clement.

Did Johnson’s ambivalence about running create the Briley-Dean quagmire that may scuttle both campaigns and result in Clement, whom many regard as an undesirable candidate, landing in the mayor’s office?

From what I have read, I do have the impression that Johnson is a person of integrity who after some legitimate soul searching decided that the timing wasn’t right for him to hit the campaign trail. Nonetheless, the timing of his decision may have a dramatic impact–for worse or for better–on the next several years of Nashville’s future.