Archive for July 24th, 2007

Poll, schmoll–unless you’re leading

Tuesday, July 24th, 2007

Howard Gentry flier
Howard Gentry, who placed in a virtual tie for the lead in the City Paper poll documented in today’s edition, just fired off a missive in regard to the survey results:

MOMENTUM CONTINUES BUILDING FOR THE ONLY POLL THAT MATTERS…

Our campaign knows the only poll that matters is on election day. Still, we thought you might want to see this new City Paper/SurveyUSA independent poll that shows Howard in a statistical tie for the top spot going into the August 2nd election. Howard’s unifying message of building Nashville by building its people is resonating with folks across the city.

Gentry’s camp is right to agree with Clement spokesperson Ben Hall’s reference to the political truism that only elections, rather than polls, matter in a campaign. If a poll demonstrates a positive for you, though, then by all means BELIEVE!

On paper, Vanderbilt’s a bowl team

Tuesday, July 24th, 2007

I admire City Paper sports writer Brett Hait’s boldness in predicting a bowl for Vanderbilt football for the first time in 25 years this season, and I sure hope he’s right:

 Is this the year Vanderbilt’s bowl drought comes an end? Allow me to speak for [Coach Bobby] Johnson for a moment. Yes, this is the year. The  Commodores haven’t been bowling since 1982, but the stars are aligned for that run of futility to come to an end…

When was the last time Vanderbilt entered a season with this much [talent and experience]? Seventeen starters return, and several were on the coaches’ Preseason All-SEC team this summer. Talent without experience sometimes falls short. Experience without talent doesn’t mean much, either. For a change, VU has both. 

Hait lists nine other reasons why the Commodores will be playing after their regular season ends in November. He makes a sound argument, but will “Vanderbilt” and “bowl-eligible” sound right in December? The buzz around this year’s team is as high as it has been since Jay Cutler’s departure or even during Cutler’s sophomore year, the last time pundits prognosticated postseason play for the ‘Dores, but the schedule is awfully tough in a crowded SEC East.

Poll accuracy: It’s all in the eye of the, er, candidate

Tuesday, July 24th, 2007

I learned two things this morning from reading about the City Paper’s recently conducted mayoral poll: One, the mayoral race is very much in play for at least four candidates, though it may be headed toward a Bob Clement-Karl Dean runoff. Two, a poll is only valid if you like the results it generates. Well, at least that’s what seems to happen every time one is released:

“You can do these polls any way you want to — unscientific and random polls are of little concern to me and my campaign,” [Buck] Dozier said. “We are going after the likely voters who vote in this kind of election — not just people who are registered,” he said.

[David] Briley’s campaign said the race is far from clinched. “Our internal polling continues to show that this is a wide open race. We believe this race will be won on the ground,” said spokeswoman Emily Passini.

In a race where five candidates have significant support, I think there is an element of truth in both Dozier’s and Passini’s comments. I definitely see scenarios where Dozier and Briley can make the runoff. At the same time, though, what else can you say when you are trailing in a poll a week before Election Day except that the poll isn’t accurate?

This may be the first time during the campaign, but I definitely agree with Ben Hall on one thing: “While not directly addressing the poll, Clement spokesman Ben Hall said, ‘The only poll that matters is the one on election day.’” Is anyone else ready to stop pontificating and see how it turns out?