August 2, 2007
Today’s weather: An election administrator’s dream
Today’s weather forecast (above by the hour) is right out of Election Commission Administrator Ray Barrett’s dreams: sunny with a very low chance of rain. That means that the will of the electorate (at least one-third of it) and GOTV efforts by the individual campaigns should be well served today.
Whom does the weather benefit most? I’ve read plenty of theories about this over the years. The ones that stand out in my memory are that minority populations and casual/undecided voters may be more likely to vote when the weather is accommodating. That could benefit Howard Gentry and Karl Dean, who have both gained momentum of late. As Roger Abramson observed yesterday, late momentum tends to draw the attention of voters who are not as immersed in the day-to-day happenings of the race. Supporters of David Briley have maintained for weeks that Briley’s strong grassroots efforts will pay dividends in a strong and perhaps surprising turnout in his favor today, so the good forecast may benefit him as well. This is debatable, but I’ve also heard it said that lower turnouts in this race might benefit candidates such as Buck Dozier, who has a solid but modest base of Church of Christ voters. A higher turnout may hurt or help Bob Clement depending on whether name recognition is more or less significant when more voters head to the polls. I can see reasonable arguments in both directions.
The best news is that we all can stop speculating, at least until tomorrow, for an hour or two tonight once the results come in. If you haven’t made it to the polls yet, stop procrastinating and cast your ballot.
![Rob Robinson](http://thinktrain.net/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2007/02/Rob.jpg")
Volunteer Voters » Making The Case For Just About Any Of Them said,
August 2, 2007 @ 7:59 am
[...] 2Rob discusses how the weather may impact the vote today: Whom does the weather benefit most? I’ve read plenty of theories about this over the years. The ones that stand out in my memory are that minority populations and casual/undecided voters may be more likely to vote when the weather is accommodating. That could benefit Howard Gentry and Karl Dean, who have both gained momentum of late. As Roger Abramson observed yesterday, late momentum tends to draw the attention of voters who are not as immersed in the day-to-day happenings of the race. Supporters of David Briley have maintained for weeks that Briley’s strong grassroots efforts will pay dividends in a strong and perhaps surprising turnout in his favor today, so the good forecast may benefit him as well. This is debatable, but I’ve also heard it said that lower turnouts in this race might benefit candidates such as Buck Dozier, who has a solid but modest base of Church of Christ voters. A higher turnout may hurt or help Bob Clement depending on whether name recognition is more or less significant when more voters head to the polls. I can see reasonable arguments in both directions. Share and Enjoy: These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages. [...]
Christine said,
August 3, 2007 @ 8:10 pm
Rain or Shine if I gotta be there I gotta be there.
Rob Robinson said,
August 4, 2007 @ 6:19 pm
I feel exactly the same way, Christine. I wish there were more people who saw things the way we do.